Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Mar 12th, 2025

Carla Sturm • March 12, 2025

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 2¾%


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

March 12, 2025


The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.


The Canadian economy entered 2025 in a solid position, with inflation close to the 2% target and robust GDP growth. However, heightened trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States will likely slow the pace of economic activity and increase inflationary pressures in Canada. The economic outlook continues to be subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape.


After a period of solid growth, the US economy looks to have slowed in recent months. US inflation remains slightly above target. Economic growth in the euro zone was modest in late 2024. China’s economy has posted strong gains, supported by government policies. Equity prices have fallen and bond yields have eased on market expectations of weaker North American growth. Oil prices have been volatile and are trading below the assumptions in the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The Canadian dollar is broadly unchanged against the US dollar but weaker against other currencies.


Canada’s economy grew by 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024 following upwardly revised growth of 2.2% in the third quarter. This growth path is stronger than was expected at the time of the January MPR. Past cuts to interest rates have boosted economic activity, particularly consumption and housing. However, economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 will likely slow as the intensifying trade conflict weighs on sentiment and activity. Recent surveys suggest a sharp drop in consumer confidence and a slowdown in business spending as companies postpone or cancel investments. The negative impact of slowing domestic demand has been partially offset by a surge in exports in advance of tariffs being imposed. 


Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.


Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.


While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing US tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest. Against this background, and with inflation close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 25 basis points.


Monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is ensure that higher prices do not lead to ongoing inflation. Governing Council will be carefully assessing the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 16, 2025. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.


Carla Strum
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Should You Get Pre-approved For A Mortgage?

By Carla Sturm • April 23, 2025
If you’re thinking about buying a property, but you’re not sure where to start, you’ve come to the right place! Let’s discuss how getting pre-approved is one of the first steps in your home buying journey. Just like you wouldn’t go into a restaurant without knowing if you have enough money to buy your meal, it’s not a good idea to be shopping for a home without an understanding of how much you can afford. You can browse MLS from your couch all you want beforehand, but when you’re ready to start looking at properties with a real estate agent, you need a pre-approval. Now, as there may be some confusion around exactly what a pre-approval does and doesn’t do, let’s discuss it in detail. First of all, a pre-approval is not magic, and it’s not binding. A pre-approval is not a contract that will guarantee mortgage financing despite changes to your financial situation. Instead, a pre-approval is simply the first look at your overall financial health that will point you in the right direction before you’re ready to apply for a mortgage. Said in another way, a pre-approval is a map that gives you the plan to secure an actual approval. After going through the pre-approval process, you’ll know how to qualify for a mortgage and at what amount. When considering your mortgage application, lenders look at your income, credit history, assets vs liabilities, and the property itself. Working through a pre-approval will cover all these areas and will uncover any major obstacles that might be in your way of securing financing. The best time to secure a pre-approval is as soon as possible; it’s never a bad idea to have a plan. Here are a few of the obstacles that a pre-approval can uncover: You’ve recently changed jobs, and you’re still on probation Your income relies heavily on extra shifts or commissions You’re unaware of factual mistakes or collections on your credit report You don’t have an established credit profile You don’t have enough money saved for a downpayment Additional debt is lowering the amount you qualify for Really anything you don't know that you don't know Even if you believe you have all your ducks in a row, working through the pre-approval process with an independent mortgage professional will ensure you have the best chance of securing a final approval. As a point of clarity, a pre-approval is not the same as a pre-qualification. This is not typing a few things into a website, calculating some numbers, and thinking you’re all set. A pre-approval includes providing your financial information, looking at your credit report, discussing a plan for securing mortgage financing with a mortgage professional, and even submitting documents ahead of time. Mortgage financing can be a daunting process; it doesn’t have to be. Having a plan in place and doing as much as you can beforehand is essential to ensuring a smooth home buying experience. As there is no cost for getting a mortgage pre-approval, there is absolutely no risk. Consider starting the process right now! If you’d like to walk through your financial situation and get pre-approved for a mortgage, let’s talk. It would be a pleasure to work with you!

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Apr 16th, 2025

By Carla Sturm • April 16, 2025
Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario April 16, 2025 The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. The major shift in direction of US trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations. Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy. In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope. Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year. Many other trade policy scenarios are possible. There is also an unusual degree of uncertainty about the economic outcomes within any scenario, since the magnitude and speed of the shift in US trade policy are unprecedented. Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the United States, the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the euro area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly. Financial markets have been roiled by serial tariff announcements, postponements and continued threats of escalation. This extreme market volatility is adding to uncertainty. Oil prices have declined substantially since January, mainly reflecting weaker prospects for global growth. Canada’s exchange rate has recently appreciated as a result of broad US dollar weakness. In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation. Inflation was 2.3% in March, lower than in February but still higher than 1.8% at the time of the January MPR. The higher inflation in the last couple of months reflects some rebound in goods price inflation and the end of the temporary suspension of the GST/HST. Starting in April, CPI inflation will be pulled down for one year by the removal of the consumer carbon tax. Lower global oil prices will also dampen inflation in the near term. However, we expect tariffs and supply chain disruptions to push up some prices. How much upward pressure this puts on inflation will depend on the evolution of tariffs and how quickly businesses pass on higher costs to consumers. Short-term inflation expectations have moved up, as businesses and consumers anticipate higher costs from trade conflict and supply disruptions. Longer term inflation expectations are little changed. Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. Our focus will be on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. This means we will support economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well controlled. Governing Council will proceed carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is maintain price stability for Canadians. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 4, 2025. The Bank will publish its next MPR on July 30, 2025. Read the April 16th, 2025 Monetary Report